Good morning everyone.
Get ready for another great weekend round of English Premier League.
Get ready for another betting analysis and prediction from me.
As we are getting closer to the end of the season, we should expect more surprises.
In the same time more teams will not have the chance for another mistake, if they wanna get what they are aiming for.
Because of this, I am expecting a lot more suspense and goals than before.
Here’s what we will have a chance to watch today:
Birmingham v Arsenal 27/03/2010 15:00 GMT
Chelsea v Aston Villa 27/03/2010 15:00 GMT
Hull v Fulham 27/03/2010 15:00 GMT
Wolverhampton v Everton 27/03/2010 15:00 GMT
West Ham v Stoke 27/03/2010 15:00 GMT
Tottenham v Portsmouth 27/03/2010 15:00 GMT
Bolton v Manchester United 27/03/2010 17:30 GMT
Birmingham v Arsenal: Out of the last 11 games between the two Arsenal has 7 victories, 1 loss and 3 draw games. As you might be aware the Gunners are in a very good “stalking” position, where they will have to just keep up close enough to Manchester United and Chelsea, before the direct game, where then they can have a chance to surpass any of the two, or both, depending on the outcome of the game.
Birmingham hasn’t been in a great shape recently, allowing teams from the lower half of the table to beat them. Home record of 7 wins 6 draws and 2 losses, shows good play at home, but those draws, have cost them 12 points.
Supposedly Arsenal will have no problems in this game, however we saw a very hard visit versus Hull City with an extremely late goal. Take in consideration the fact that 4 days from now March 31st Arsenal has a game versus Barcelona. I personally think they will go for Champions League and leave it to the youngsters and reserves in this game today.
Although an away victory might seem tempting I don’t think it’s a safe bet. 4 out of the 5 visit Arsenal has had versus Birmingham ended with Over 2.5 Goals, so that’s an 80% chance and odds of 1.84 @ Betfair. This would be my prediction, Over 2.5 Goals.
Chelsea v Aston Villa: What can we say about this game… Chelsea are out of Champions League and now can focus on the games from the league on 100%. With a home record of 13 wins 1 draw and 1 loss Chelsea can respect and the most impressive teams. In the same time Villa has been loosing points from mediocre teams like Wolverhampton and Sunderland.
Looking over the stats of the home games when Chelsea met Villa, the scores 1:0 and 2:0 stand out a lot. Out of 10 games, 5 has ended with that score, and 1 more Under 2.5 Goals.
However I do think both teams will go at each other so a good bet might be “Both Teams To Score” @ 1.91 in Betfair.
Hull v Fulham: Three games between these teams, two of which ended with a victory for Hull City. Home record of 5 wins 5 draws and 4 loses shows that the game can go any of the three directions. However Fulham’s away record of 1 victory 6 draws and 8 losses, shows that the teams is quite disappointing when playing away.
As a matter of fact, Hull City still has a chance to move out of the red zone, and as you see they depend solely on home games. My prediction for this game would be that end zone teams will start playing a lot more competitive in order to stay in the Premier League next year, thus Hull will get a victory here. Odds @ 2.50 in Betfair.
Wolverhampton v Everton: A draw and a victory for each team, from three games total. What’s important here is that Everton are in an extremely good shape, and as I have said in the past few weeks, it will not be a surprise for me, if they get into the Europa League zone. They already beat Man City as a guest , which speaks for itself.
Wolverhampton were able to move away from the red zone, and another win, might kick them up even higher and guarantee them playing in the Premier League next year. However home record of 4 wins 3 draws and 8 losses is nothing to be proud of, and it’s something they must work on, if not this year, next year.
My prediction for this game would be, that if Everton shows half of the game they did in Manchester, they will go home with the victory. Away victory for Everton @ 2.10 in Betfair
West Ham v Stoke: Bad season for West Ham, five consecutive losses so far, two of them at home against teams like Wolverhampton and Bolton. West Ham have to find the key to victory or they will be playing in Championship next year.
Stoke has an away record of 2 victories 7 draw games and 5 losses, which show that the team draws a lot, when visiting. West Ham needs points so I know they will go for the early goal for sure. In the same time, this will leave open spots for counter attacks from Stoke.
My prediction would be “Both Teams To Score” @ 1.85 in Betfair
Tottenham v Portsmouth: Tottenham needs to keep the good work so far to keep the 4th spot. Home record of 10 wins 2 draws and 3 losses speaks well for the team and their games at home.
As for Portsmouth, we all know they will be most likely playing in Championship next year. This is actually a double edged sword. Why? Because they can feel two ways, the first way is they might just give up and feel down and loose almost every game until the end of the season, OR, they can get rid of the pressure about moving out of the red zone, and play some very well coordinated games for pride and glory.
Although a home victory is expected, the odds will not be good enough for any real bettor. So we would have to look for something better for play. Out of 13 games, 7 of them have ended with Under 2.5 Goals, and 8 of them have ended with Both Teams To Score.
My prediction would be “Both Teams To Score” odds @ 2.28 in Betfair. Quite high if you ask me, but very possible.
Bolton v Manchester United: Bolton hasn’t won against United at home in the past 10 years, but today this might change! Why? United has a hard visit in Germany in 3 days, for Champions League, which will be very important and perhaps Rooney will sit this game out. What happens when Rooney sits…. United hardly scores.
Quite many possible bets here, unless you are sure in United’s success that you wanna go for the away victory. My suggestions here would be Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.18 and “Only One Team To Score” @ 1.90 in Betfair. Why these bets? 4 out of the last 5 games ended Under 2.5 Goals with only one of the teams scoring. Seems good enough for me to trust it.
The odds are as of now, so hurry up and get on your favorite bookmaker. If you are looking for greater odds, be sure to register in Betfair or Bet365 as those are the two with usually the highest odds.
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