Benfica meets PSV Thursday night in a quarter final of Europa League.
This is the only pair of quarter finalists that has actually met before, exactly 5 times. Each team has recorded a stat of W1 D3 L1, so things look pretty “draw-ish”.
Benfica eliminated the team of PSG on their way here, winning the home game with 2:1, while drawing the away game in France 1:1. The last time Benfica met PSV was on 30/09/1998 in the UEFA Champions League, a game that ended 2:1 in favor of Benfica. The team lost the derby against Porto, 4 days ago with 1:2 at home, making the difference between both teams 16 points, which means that Benfica will finish the season as second. Before that game Benfica was unbeaten at home since 07/12/2010 when the team lost a game against Schalke in the Champions League groups.
Ironically, PSV lost the derby with Twente, 5 days ago leaving the team on the second position, 2 points behind Twente. To get in this stage of the tournament PSV had to eliminate Rangers. After the first game in Holland which ended 0:0, PSV were able to win the return match in Scotland with 1:0 and advance. PSV’s nine games against Portuguese opponents have ended W2 D4 L3 (W1 D1 L2 in Portugal). PSV are unbeaten in their last 5 away games in Europe, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 9 goals in those games.
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Benfica has only 1 loss in 12 home games, 10 victories and a draw. The loss to Schalke put an end to a streak of 10 consecutive victories.
Last year, Benfica faced Liverpool in this very same stage of the tournament, which resulted in a home victory with 2:1, and a loss on Anfield with 4:1.
Benfica is the favorite for this game. The team has been exceptional in home games with minor exceptions. While that’s true, the team’s record against Dutch teams reads W6 D6 L5, (W1 D1 L2 in Portugal).
Benfica has played 6 home games in Europe this season, recording one Under 2.5 Goals in their very first game and then 5 consecutive Over 2.5 Goals. Given the history of both teams and previous scores I think it’s a good idea to back Over 2.5 Goals. Good luck betting.
Recommended Bet:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 
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