Calculate your own double chance odds

The double chance bet, is a very popular choice among the football punters, but how often do you check if the odds are worth it?

First, let’s start with what a double chance bet is. Usually abbreviated as 1X or X2, the double chance bet, let’s you cover 66% of the outcome of the game. It lets you cover the draw, as well as one of the sides to win, or either side to win.

Sportsbooks usually place this type of bet in the extra betting markets, and its odds are already given to you. That, you already probably know. What you might don’t know is that these odds are usually shaved a bit or juiced up.

There’s an exact formula to calculate the double chance odds, which is easy to remember and execute. This way you can always calculate the real double chance odds, and see what the sportsbooks give you.

Too confusing? Use our double chance odds calculator below:

Sportsbook Odds

1:

X:

2:

Sportsbook Draw Double Chance odds

1X Odds:

2X Odds:

12 Odds:

Desired winnings amount:

Double Chance Odds Should Be

1X Odds:

Worth taking Double Chance 1X Odds:

Bet the following amounts for maximum profit:
1 =

X =

2X Odds:

Worth taking Double Chance 2X Odds:

Bet the following amounts for maximum profit:
2 =

X =

12 Odds:

Worth taking Double Chance 12 Odds:

Bet the following amounts for maximum profit:
1 =

2 =

For my example, I will be using the upcoming Champions League game between Benfica and Manchester United . The odds are provided by bet365 and as of September 3rd 2011 are as follow: Benfica – 3.75    Draw – 3.40    Manchester United – 2.00.

The formulas for calculating the double chance odds are:

Odds of Team A or B * Odd of Draw / (Odds of Team A or B + Odds of Draw);

In words, the odds of team A or B, multiplied by the odds of the draw, divided by the sum of the same odds

or if you are going with either team to win:

Odds of Team A * Odds of Team B / (Odds of Team A + Odds of Team B);

In words the odds of team A, multiplied by the odds of team B, divided by the sum of those odds.

Using our example match if we want to back up the double chance of Benfica or Draw, we would input into the formula the following numbers:

3.75 * 3.40 / (3.75 + 3.40) = 12.75 / 7.15 = 1.783

So, 1.783 should be odds given to you for Benfica or Draw. The odds bet365 gives you are 1.72, so -0.06 which isn’t that bad.

Let’s see if we want to go with Manchester United or Draw:

2.00 * 3.40 / (2.00 + 3.40) = 6.80 / 5.40 = 1.259

So odds of 1.26, bet365 gives you 1.25, -0.01 which isn’t bad either.

Let’s see now if we go with Benfica or Manchester United :

2.00 * 3.75 / (2.00 + 3.75) = 7.50 / 5.75 = 1.304

Your double chance odds come to 1.304 bet365 gives you 1.28, -0.02.

In our example all of the gives odds by the sportsbook, were a bit less than what they should have been, but since the difference was quite small it wasn’t a big deal or was it? Let’s see.

In case you are staking big money, you can always simulate the double chance odds by placing bets separately on your selections. For example Benfica or a Draw:

In order to win £100.00, you would need to calculate how much to stake:

£100/3.75 (Benfica Odds to win) = £26.66 (will be your stake on Benfica)
£100/3.40 (Odds of Draw) = £29.41 (will be your stake on the Draw)

Total money spent: £56.07
Profit: £100.00 – £56.07 = £43.93 (your profit, when you subtract both wagers)

Let’s see what happens if you stake the same amount of money £56.07 on the odds given by the sportsbook:

£56.07 * 1.72 (double chance odds given by the sportsbook) = £96.44
Profit: £96.44 – £56.07 = £40.37

You’ve just lost £3.56 on a £56.07 wager, if you didn’t do your math and went with the double chance odds. The more you stake the more the “small” difference will hurt your profit.

There are games where the sportsbook will actually give you a bit of extra, but you can’t find out unless you calculate it yourself. From what I can recall last season(2010-2011), on the derby of Madrid between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, Atletico or Draw had an extra on their double chance odds.

So should I take the double chance bet?

Bottom line, yes if the given odds provide something extra or are exactly the same. Otherwise you are better off making two separate bets like above. Small bets won’t feel the difference at all, while wagers of 4 digits or above will feel quite the difference:

Difference between original odds and double chance odds in this table is 0.06:

Stake:
Double Chance Odds:
Team A Win
Draw
Profit with Double Chance
Profit with 2 separate bets
Difference:
£5.60
1.72
3.75
3.40
£4.03
£4.39
£0.36
£56.00
1.72
3.75
3.40
£40.37
£43.93
£3.56
£560.00
1.72
3.75
3.40
£403.70
£439.30
£35.60
£5600.00
1.72
3.75
3.40
£4037.00
£4393.00
£356.00

Here’s what happens when the difference is 0.16:

Stake:
Double Chance Odds:
Team A Win
Draw
Profit with Double Chance
Profit with 2 separate bets
Difference:
£5.60
1.62
3.75
3.40
£3.47
£4.39
£0.92
£56.00
1.62
3.75
3.40
£34.72
£43.93
£9.21
£560.00
1.62
3.75
3.40
£347.20
£439.30
£92.10
£5600.00
1.62
3.75
3.40
£3472.00
£4393.00
£921.00

Really big difference even on moderate amount of money staked. Therefore make sure you always double check your odds.

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