If I have said it once, I probably have said it million times, don’t bet on low odd games!
They are simply not worth it, and in the long run, you will loose more than you will win! This weekend, proved exactly my point, but for those of you who are not familiar what I have in mind I will go in details.
If you have went over my Betting School, you are probably familiar with the term, Drawdown! If you haven’t it’s no biggie, I will explain it right now!
Say you have $10 and you loose half of it, now you would have $5 and you would have lost 50% of your initial start! Now, what percent you would have win to break even and get to your original $10?
Nope, it’s not 50%, it’s 100%, you would have to make up an additional $5 which is 100% of the $5 you already have! This is called Drawdown, and the bigger percentage of your money you risk and loose, the bigger the Drawdown!
Just to make it a little more clear here are the percentages lost of your initial start, and the percentages you would have to make up just to break even:
10% loss -> 11% profit to break even
20% loss -> 25% profit to break even
50% loss -> 100% profit to break even
80% loss -> 400% profit to break even
90% loss -> 900% profit to break even
I hope you get the picture now! So why did you have to know this? Because when you are betting on games with odds with 1.12, 1.18, 1.25 you would have to stake a great amount of money, to actually make a valuable profit. A $1000 bet on a game with 1.12 odds would result in a profit of $120! Great, now calculate the risk to reward ratio!
You stake $1000 that’s what’s being risked, and you get back a profit of $120 that’s your reward! So what is it, something close to 10:1? So you would have to be correct 10 out of 11 times just to break even! That’s about 90% of the time and let me tell you, if you can get your predictions up to 90% month after month you would be the greatest sports bettor the history has known!
What happens if you are actually 90% correct of the time, but you are wrong from the start? Sports betting is not about how many times you can win, it’s about how many time you can loose, and keep on playing and staying with a positive balance!
Now let’s take a game with the odds of 4.00! Say you still had those $1000 and you wanted to make as much profit as from that 1.12 game! To do that you would only had to stake $40 which is 4% of your initial amount! The risk-reward ratio is 1:4 so you would have to be correct 25% of the time to break even! This also allows you to be wrong 25 times in a row, before you loose all of your money!
Compared to the betting on low odds strategy, that allowed to be wrong only once and preferably after 10 consecutive wins, it’s huge! Of course with higher odds, you will loose more times, but this doesn’t matter! What matters is that you keep on making profit as long as you keep being correct 25% of the time! That’s a lot better than 90% don’t you think?
Hopefully you will find this article helpful, and will pass it on, to people who have the misconception that a lot of money staked on a low odd game, is the ultimate way to beat the system!
If you are interested in more tips,tricks,strategies and betting systems, please refer to the books on your right! For as low as five bucks you can learn a lot more and improve your knowledge and skills!
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