In a return match, Liverpool will meet Rabotnicki, after a comfortable victory away with 0:2.
Although the odds for a win are very low, there might be something profitable in this game.
Be aware that this is more of a long shot, but it’s backed up by statistics and some logic(if logic plays any part in football betting).
For those of you unfamiliar with Rabotnicki, that a football club from Macedonia, currently playing in the local League 1. They have been in the European tournaments, for the past 10 years, but without serious achievements.
The first game between these two teams ended with a victory for Liverpool with 2:0. There’s no reason, Liverpool to come out today with the starters, especially when an important game with Arsenal is coming up in a week.
Where am I going with this? Take a look at the odds for Under 2.5 Goals. Pretty darn good at 3.10 (Betfair.com). Taking in consideration, that Liverpool has practically qualified, and will not put as much effort as in the first game, they are not a team that scores that much. Check out their last 6 games:
Mgladbach 1-0 Liverpool
Rabotnicki 0-2 Liverpool
Kaiserslautern 1-0 Liverpool
Grasshoppers Zurich 0-0 Liverpool
Hull 0-0 Liverpool
Liverpool 0-2 Chelsea
Nevermind the win/lose ratio, but checkout the scores. All of them are Under 2.5 Goals.
What’s to expect from this match?
Expecting Liverpool to play their game, taking control in the middle of the field with the idea of scoring. Meanwhile Rabotnicki has nothing to loose, they need at least two clean goals, but we all know that’s hard to happen. A draw here for them will be a success.
Bottom line, Liverpool will be happy with a minimal victory of 1:0, but a 0:0 is also as good.
The Betting Verdict?
Backing Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.10 (Betfair.com): As I said above, the past 6 games for Liverpool have ended under 2.5 goals. The past 3 games for Rabotnicki have ended under 2.5 goals as well.
In a week the EPL starts and Liverpool will have to meet Arsenal, so I am expecting to save few starters today. I know this bet is a long shot, but it’s well worth it.
