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We continue travelling the vastness of LEC Winter 2025 in the run-up to the Long Sognega matches of Europe's main event. Slowly but surely, we're getting to grips with the first week of matches in the European league's Winter Split.
Opening the third day of LEC Winter 2025 matches will be Rogue and BDS. The match will take place on the 20th of January at 18:00 CET in a bo1 format.
We're trying to figure out which of the Rogue vs BDS pair will be stronger and earn an important win ahead of Long Sogpeg's new week of matches.
Let's go.
BDS uniforms
Let's open our breakdown of the BDS vs Rogue match with an analysis of the BDS form. In this match they will play as favourites with odds to win at around 1.3.
At LEC Winter 2023, BDS made it to the group stage, but quickly fell out of there, taking the last place in their quartet. The result was a top-7 finish.
Next came LEC Spring 2023 and BDS' moment of glory. Completely unexpectedly they reached the grand final, but there they lost to MAD Lions, who were on a terrific spree in spring.
- BDS line-up: Irrelevant, 113, Nuc, Ice, Parus.
Before LEC Finals 2023, BDS played at LEC Summer 2023. They were one map short of reaching the play-offs. They finished the championship in 5th place.
Thanks to the near top places and TOP 2 at LEC Spring 2023 BDS managed to get to LEC Finals 2023, and also to the top grid, where they got to G2 Esports in the first round. The International didn't end up with anything interesting and G2 had no trouble closing out the match with a 3-1 score.
After the defeat from the main favourite of LEC Finals 2023 - G2 Esports - BDS played against SK Gaming. The German club was unable to give anything to the French and fell with a score of 0-3.
However, BDS' path to the LEC Finals 2023 ended with the game against SK. The team lost to Fnatic 2-3 in the next round of the lower bracket, thus failing to make it into the top 3 of the tournament for direct participation in the main tournament.
BDS have already started Worlds 2023 on a positive note. They ran over Golden Guardians at the Worlds Qualifying Series in class, thus snatching a slot in the same Play-In.
After a confidence-boosting win over GG at the Worlds Qualifying Series, BDS unexpectedly fell in their first match at Worlds 2023. They lost to No. 2 Vietnam, thus becoming the main losers of the World Championship so far.
They managed to partially rehabilitate themselves in the match against DFM. The Japanese club did not provide proper resistance and BDS closed the series with a very simple 2-0.
In the match for the exit here BDS played against CTBC. The Frenchmen outclassed their opponents, closing the series 2-0.
BDS battled PSG Talon to advance to the group stage. The French were a map away from elimination, but on the third map Adam and his Olaf gave his team a chance to clinch a comeback and BDS took it: a reverse sweep in the group stage match actually allowed BDS to qualify for the group stage.
In the group stage of Worlds 2023, BDS first ran into JD Gaming. Obviously, the first team of the world was not up to the French and they lost without much of a chance. Next was a match against MAD Lions and again an ironclad defeat. The BDS final at Worlds 2023 was as ignominious as their entire stay at the tournament - they lost 0-2 to Dplus.
BDS will make their LEC Winter 2024 debut against G2 Esports. Cheers to them! Later on it will be a match against GIANTX, which will be easier, but not easy.
BDS had almost no equal in the regular season of LEC Winter 2024. The French club lost only 2 matches: the first one of the year against G2 Esports and the last one in the regular season against Karmine Corp.
In the play-offs LEC Winter 2024 met Team Heretics. There, the French beat Heretics 2-0 on class. The quarter-finals were not much harder for BDS: again a confident 2-0 win, but now against Vitality. They fell to the lower set after a scoreless defeat to G2 Esports in the small final of the upper set. And already there, they lost to MAD Lions.
LEC Spring 2024 was not bad, but they couldn't reach MSI 2024. They were hampered by Fnatic, who knocked out BDS in the grand final match.
BDS made it to the LEC Summer 2024 play-offs with great confidence, sharing the regular season top 1 with SK Gaming. The playoffs of the Long Sogpeg Championship started with a 2-1 win over MAD Lions KOI. Then met with G2 Esports and the outcome was more than obvious - 0-2 in favour of G2. Falling into the bottom set BSD outlasted GiantX, closing out the series with a score of 2-1. Prior to this match, BDS played against Karmine Corp and it was a pretty tough match, but still ended with a 3-2 win for BDS. But in the match for the exit to the grand finals was unlucky to meet G2: 1-3 and departure to the top 3.
LEC Finals 2024 started with an idle loss against Fnatic. Next was a similarly scoreless win over SK Gaming in the first round of the lower bracket. Then there was a match against G2 Esports for the top 3 of LEC Finals, but there BDS lacked literally one map to win and with the score 2-3 they left the tournament.
They will debut at LEC Winter 2025 with a match against Vitality, followed by a match against G2.
The most popular BDS champions
On the top line the most frequent picks are K'Sante (4 matches, 50% wins), Gnar (3 matches, 100% wins).
Foresters picks are Wukong (4 matches, 50% wins), Vi (2 matches, 50% wins), Nocturne (2 matches, 50% wins), Viego (2 matches, 0% wins).
On the centre line Gragas (4 matches, 50% wins), Annie (4 matches, 50% wins).
Aphelios (6 matches, 33% wins), Jinx (3 matches, 66% wins), Zeri (2 matches, 100% wins).
The other stable players are Lulu (3 matches, 66% wins), Rakan (3 games, 0% wins), Nautilus (2 matches, 50% wins).
Rogue Form
We continue our breakdown of the Rogue vs Vitality match with an analysis of Rogue's match form. In this match they will play as Underpassdogs with win odds around 3.2.
Rogue missed all of 2023 and only returned to the competitive League of Legends in the run-up to 2024. This was a logical decision, as Rogue had a strong showing in 2022, but something went wrong.
First, they proved themselves at LEC Spring 2022, reaching the grand finals of the Spring Split. Then G2 stepped in and prevented Rogue from ending the season with a triumph.
However, fortune proved favourable in the next European league. At LEC Summer 2022, Rogue finished top 3 in the group stage, and then played a pretty tough play-offs: a 3-2 win over MAD Lions, a 0-3 loss to G2, a small final win over Fnatic, and finally an undisputed championship with a 3-0 win over G2.
Rogue visited Worlds 2022 in October the season before last. They had low expectations, but Rogue exceeded many people's expectations by making it to the play-offs. At the end of the tournament, the team finished in the top 8, which is an absolute success for the residents of Europe.
- Rogue line-up: Adam, Malrang, Larssen, Patrix, Execute.
In the new season the core of Koi plays for Rogue, which is quite logical, because the club absorbed the slot of the Spanish organisation.
In the first match, Rogue will meet SK Gaming. I expect a win in the first match for the "new" team within the LEC. Next - the game against Heretics and here it will not be easier than in the match with SK: "Heretics" look good, and their roster is probably one of the most combative in the new LEC. In the end Rogue Ledge and Heretics beat G2 Esports, who are considered to be the main favourites for the tournament, but then lost to SK Gaming.
The first week Rogue went 1-2, which is not good, but not critical. But things got much worse, which led Rogue to a 2-6 statistic before Long Sogpeg's final match. And they lost that one, thus finishing in the top 9.
LEC Spring 2024 Rogue failed. Just like at LEC Winter 2024, the team did not make it out of the group stage, finishing in the top 9. It was not much better at LEC Summer 2024, where Rogue showed nothing: Top 10.
LEC Winter 2025 will open with a match against Heretics, followed by a match against GiantX.
Most Popular Rogue Champions
Ornn (4 matches, 25% wins), Gangplank (4 matches, 100% wins), Gnar (4 games, 50% wins), Gwen (4 matches, 50% wins) were all equally wielded on top.
Wukong (4 matches, 75% wins), Vi (3 games, 33% wins), Trundle (3 matches, 33% wins) played in the forest.
Azir (6 matches, 66% wins), Taliyah (4 games, 25% wins) played on the centre.
ADC position was closed with Kalista (5 matches, 40% of wins), Ezrael (3 matches, 66% of wins), Sivir (3 matches, 66% of wins).
Renata Glasc (3 games, 33% wins), Rakan (3 matches, 100% wins), Nami (2 matches, 100% wins) were selected for the match.
History of head-to-head meetings between BDS and Rogue
In the season 2024 the teams crossed each other three times and all 3 matches were won by BDS.
Predicted result of BDS vs Rogue at LEC Winter 2025
In my opinion, Rogue will go 0-3 this week. Accordingly, I'm betting on BDS in this match.
Bottom line: BDS wins.
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